One year after a devastating primary loss to Mitch McConnell,
Matt Bevin may emerge as the GOP's gubernatorial nominee in Kentucky
Voters in Kentucky and Philadelphia go to the polls Tuesday to select candidates in their primaries, while Jacksonville, Florida, will host a general election for mayor. We'll be liveblogging the results at
Daily Kos Elections starting at 6 PM ET when polls begin to close. Note that neither Kentucky nor Philadelphia have primary runoffs, so a simple plurality is all that's needed to win. Here's our preview of al the top races:
• KY-Gov (R): This four-way contest has turned into one of the ugliest races we've seen in a long time, and it's anyone's guess who will emerge with the GOP nomination.
Things began to go off the rails when a blogger named Michael Adams accused state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer of abusing his then-girlfriend back in college. Adams presented no evidence for his startling assertion, though, and the fact that he had been informally coordinating with one of Comer's rivals, former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner, called his veracity in question.
However, that former girlfriend, Marilyn Thomas, soon stepped forward and publicly accused Comer of physically and mentally abusing her over two decades ago, and added that he took her to get an abortion. Two of Thomas's former roommates have confirmed parts of her account, but Comer has continued to deny everything and has accused Heiner of paying Thomas to lie. Comer also claims that Adams threatened his running mate's children, a charge local prosecutors are investigating.
The Comer-Heiner slugfest, which has dominated coverage of the race, has given a third candidate, businessman Matt Bevin, an unexpected opening. When this contest started, Bevin was very much a longshot. As you may recall, Bevin ran against now-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the 2014 GOP primary for Senate and badly lost, so his last-minute decision to run for governor this year did not look like a winning move.
However, Bevin has largely stayed above the fray as his two main opponents blast each other to smithereens. Two recent polls show a very tight three-way race, with former state Supreme Court Justice Will Scott in a distant fourth place. It's anyone's guess as to how things will shake out.
The eventual GOP nominee will face Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who faces only token primary opposition. While Kentucky is a conservative state, voters there have been much more willing to elect Democrats at the state level even though they've spurned them federally. There's also a good chance that the Republican primary leaves some scars that can't be healed by November.
Note that Kentucky is split between two time zones: Polls close in the Eastern time zone at 6 PM ET and in the Central time zone at 7 PM ET. Results often start coming in after the eastern half of the state closes.
Head over the fold for a look at what else to watch on Tuesday.
• Philadelphia Mayor (D): The City of Brotherly Love hasn't elected a non-Democratic mayor since the 1940s, and the winner of this primary will be heavily favored in November. Until recently, this looked like a close contest between ex-City Councilor Jim Kenney and state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams. While labor is heavily backing Kenney, Williams is benefiting from a super PAC funded by wealthy pro-charter school businessmen. However, a recent independent poll gave Kenney a massive 42-15 lead, with former District Attorney Lynn Abraham also at 15, and no one has released any contradictory numbers.
In addition to his labor support, Kenney scored some key endorsements from notable African-American politicians, even though Kenney is white and Williams is black. Indeed, Williams has badly fumbled racial politics, and his biggest blunder came when he called for the dismissal of the city's very popular police commissioner, Charles Ramsey.
Williams tried to attack Ramsey as the architect of Philadelphia's stop-and-frisk policies, but Ramsey, who is black, has the support of two very prominent African Americans: outgoing Mayor Michael Nutter, who appointed him in the first place, and Barack Obama, who named him chair of a special panel to investigate police reforms in the wake of Ferguson. It would end up being a disastrous move for Williams, and it looks like this primary is Kenney's to lose, but we'll find out on Tuesday. Polls close at 8 PM ET.
• Jacksonville Mayor: The officially nonpartisan runoff in Jacksonville—Florida's largest city, believe it or not—pits Democratic Mayor Alvin Brown against GOP businessman Lenny Curry. Brown's 2011 win was a big upset, but he's going to have a tough time holding on in this conservative city in an off-year. Brown has known from the start that he'll need some Republican-leaning voters to come out ahead, but his approach may have alienated too many members of his own party (see Tyler Yeargain's analysis of the race for more). However, what little polling there is forecasts a close race, and Brown recently received the support of third-place primary finisher Bill Bishop, a moderate Republican councilman. Polls close at 7 PM ET.
Other Races:
• Colorado Springs Mayor: This runoff pits former state Attorney General John Suthers against former Mayor Mary Lou Makepeace. Makepeace is the more moderate candidate, but if last month's primary results are any indication, she's going to have a tough time coming out ahead. Suthers outpaced Makepeace 46-24, with two conservative candidates taking most of the remaining vote. Given how dysfunctional the city government has been in the last few years, the winner shouldn't expect an easy tenure. Polls close at 9 PM ET.
• CA State Senate: The runoff in California's 7th Senate District in the East Bay features two Democrats facing off against one another, but don't be fooled into thinking this isn't a high-stakes race. Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla has the support of labor and environmental groups, who have spent big for her. On the other side is Orinda Mayor Steve Glazer, a longtime advisor to Gov. Jerry Brown. Despite that connection, Glazer has a terrible relationship with labor, and plenty of Democrats are furious at him for endorsing Republican Catharine Baker's successful Assembly bid last year.
Altogether, a monstrous $7 million has been dropped here. While Obama won this seat 61-37, the district's Republican minority could decide this contest, and they're likely to overwhelmingly back Glazer. The winner will be up again in 2016. Polls close at 11 PM ET.